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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
KYLE IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH AN EYE FEATURE NOW EVIDENT 
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB
AND SAB...BUT WITH THE BANDING IS JUST BELOW THE REQUIRED TEN TENTHS 
NEEDED FOR A HURRICANE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOWER 245/07. KYLE HAS BEEN 
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD AROUND THE 
SOUTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS LOW HAS SEPARATED FROM KYLE AND THAT 
PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A MEAN WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE 
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE 
FORWARD SPEED.
 
KYLE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS REMAINING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR 
BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE 
CYCLONE...AFTER WHICH...STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 29.2N  54.8W    60 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 28.7N  56.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  57.7W    70 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 27.7N  58.3W    70 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 27.3N  58.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N  59.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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