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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 220/05.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME.  KYLE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA
WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THERE IS EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODELS ON THIS GENERAL MOTION...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED ENOUGH FOR KYLE TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR OR UNDER
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS LOOKING PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE.  THE T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM
SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.  NOW THAT WE
HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS FORECAST WHICH CALLS
FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 30.8N  50.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 30.2N  51.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 29.1N  53.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 28.2N  55.1W    60 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 27.8N  56.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.2N  57.9W    65 KTS
 
 
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