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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
 
KYLE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WHILE 
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 35 KT 
IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY GIVEN THE RECENT BURST OF  
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE 
PAST 3 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 210/05...BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT 
KYLE WILL BEGIN A SOUTHWEST MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS 
INDICATED BY ALL OF THE NHC MODELS. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON 
THE EAST SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS SHOULD KEEP KYLE ON A SLOW SOUTHWEST 
TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION 
TO OCCUR...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY HOSTILE 
EITHER. SINCE KYLE WILL BE LOSING LATITUDE AND MOVING OVER WARMER 
SSTS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT KYLE COULD BECOME A MINIMAL 
TROPICAL STORM BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL 
AGAIN.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 32.1N  49.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 31.6N  50.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  50.9W    35 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 30.0N  52.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 29.0N  53.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 28.1N  54.6W    55 KTS
 
 
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