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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE MORE DETACHED FROM THE
FRONTAL ZONE.  IN OTHER WORDS AT THIS TIME...IT IS MORE TROPICAL
THAN SUBTROPICAL AT THIS TIME.  THIS IS ALSO BASED ON THE CYCLONE
PHASE ANALYSIS FROM PENN STATE UNIVERSITY AND FROM AMSU DATA THAT
SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A RELATIVELY WARM CORE.  THEREFORE...IT IS NOW
TROPICAL STORM KYLE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT IT
IS ON THE HIGH SIDE.  HOWEVER...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
KYLE MAY EVENTUALLY REACH HURRICANE STATUS.
 
KYLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND LITTLE KOTION
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER KYLE SLOWLY
TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 33.2N  49.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 33.0N  49.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  50.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 32.5N  52.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  53.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  55.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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