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SUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SURPRISED US THIS MORNING WITH A CENTER A 
LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THIS 
DOES NOT MEAN A MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BUT IT IS PROBABLY 
RELATED TO REFORMATION WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS IS COMMON 
IN SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH 
WHICH EVENTUALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN 
WEST.

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL TODAY AND 
THE CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS FROM PENN STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATES THAT 
THE SYSTEM IS WARM...IT IS NOT QUITE THERE YET. IT IS KEPT AT 
SUBTROPICAL AT THIS TIME. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATE AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY 
EVENTUALLY REACH HURRICANE STATUS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 33.0N  49.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 33.0N  50.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 33.0N  50.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 32.5N  52.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  53.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  55.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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