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SUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING AWAY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...NEW CONVECTION HAS APPEARED ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSFORMING
TO A TROPICAL ENTITY.  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT...MOST
NOTABLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...SO THE UPPER LEVEL APPEARS TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB.

LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ALMOST STATIONARY AND THAT IS WHAT THE INITIAL MOTION WILL BE.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLOW AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOOPS...OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN 
AN EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER IN 
THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IF 
THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM THEN IT CAN 
STILL BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 32.1N  51.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 32.1N  51.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 31.9N  51.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 31.7N  52.1W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N  53.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 30.0N  55.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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