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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
ISIDORE HAS BEEN OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 20 HOURS AND HAS NOT SHOWN ANY
SIGNS OF REDEVELOPING AN INNER CORE.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE
LATEST INFORMATION FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH INDICATES
THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 990 MB WITH A CENTER
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN A
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  IN FACT...THE
CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS WARM
AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...DUE TO THE LACK OF INNER CORE...ONLY A SLIGHT 
STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR 60 KNOTS 
AT LANDFALL BUT DUE TO UNCERTANTIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE 
HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.

ISIDORE IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 11 KNOTS...AROUND THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL TRACK WILL CONTINUE 
UNTIL LANDFALL IN A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD 
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THIS WAS BASICALLY 
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 24.8N  89.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 26.6N  90.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 28.5N  90.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     27/0600Z 34.5N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     28/0600Z 44.5N  71.9W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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