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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
ISIDORE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE CIRCULATION THAT COVERS
ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
IN BANDS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
SOUTHWEST...THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE BANDING OF
WEAKER CONVECTION NEAR TO THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 988 MB.  WHILE
THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS ISIDORE MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THIS
MORNING...THERE IS A CERTAIN RELUCTANCE TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A VERY UNCERTAIN 350/6...AS THE LAST
FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS A SHORT-TERM MOTION A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF DUE NORTH.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND BROAD TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD STEER ISIDORE
GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES.  NHC TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST
TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE
MAINLY TO THE CURRENT INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.  SHOULD ISIDORE
STAY EAST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS AND
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED FURTHER
EASTWARD.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN THE TRACK. 
WITH THE BROAD CENTER AND THE LACK OF STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION...
ISIDORE WILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.
A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ONCE SOMETHING RESEMBLING
A CENTRAL CORE REFORMS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORMAL
RATE UNTIL LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...ISIDORE SHOULD WEAKEN AND
THEN MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE 72 HR POINT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 22.4N  89.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 23.7N  90.1W    55 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 25.6N  90.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 27.9N  90.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 30.6N  90.1W    55 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     27/1800Z 36.0N  84.5W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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