HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
 
WE ARE IN A BRIEF GAP BETWEEN RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS 
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISIDORE CONTINUES TO 
ORGANIZE...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BAND SOUTH OF THE CENTER 
AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  THE NEXT 
AIRCRAFT WILL ALMOST SURELY FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER FOR THE FIRST 
TIME AND INCREASED WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW RATHER QUICKLY.  CONDITIONS 
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ONCE A WELL-DEFINED 
CENTER DEVELOPS.  

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THINKING.  THE 
INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6.  IN THE SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  THINGS GET 
INTERESTING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A MID-TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  TIMING 
WILL BE EVERYTHING AS TO WHETHER ISIDORE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH INTO 
THE GULF TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...OR LEFT BEHIND.  THE 
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION AT THE END 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT THIS POINT...NO PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO COASTLINE CAN BE RULED OUT AS A POTENTIAL ULTIMATE LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 17.9N  78.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 18.7N  79.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 19.9N  80.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 21.1N  82.1W    65 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 22.5N  83.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 23.5N  84.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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