HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002
 
IT TOOK A LITTLE WHILE...BUT HANNA IS FINALLY MOVING ON THE EXPECTED 
TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/8.  CONCURENT WITH THE 
ACCELERATION...THE CONVECTION HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION IS STARTING TO BECOME 
DEFORMED AND ELONGATED.  THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  RECON REPORTS PEAK 925 MB 
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT.  USING A 75 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT FOR THAT 
PARTICULAR FLIGHT LEVEL INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 
KT.  

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A SIGNIFICANT 
EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  THE ETA DISSIPATES HANNA RELATIVELY 
QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE AVN ABSORBS THE CIRCULATION INTO 
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  POINTS ARE 
GIVEN TO 48 HOURS BELOW FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE 
DISTORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ALREADY OCCURRING...I STRONGLY DOUBT 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LAST THAT LONG AS A TRACKABLE SURFACE ENTITY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 29.2N  89.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 31.1N  87.8W    45 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     15/0600Z 33.5N  85.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     15/1800Z 36.0N  80.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     16/0600Z 38.5N  74.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/DSPTNG
72HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED/DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN