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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002
IT TOOK A LITTLE WHILE...BUT HANNA IS FINALLY MOVING ON THE EXPECTED
TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/8. CONCURENT WITH THE
ACCELERATION...THE CONVECTION HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION IS STARTING TO BECOME
DEFORMED AND ELONGATED. THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. RECON REPORTS PEAK 925 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT. USING A 75 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT FOR THAT
PARTICULAR FLIGHT LEVEL INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45
KT.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A SIGNIFICANT
EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE ETA DISSIPATES HANNA RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE AVN ABSORBS THE CIRCULATION INTO
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. POINTS ARE
GIVEN TO 48 HOURS BELOW FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
DISTORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ALREADY OCCURRING...I STRONGLY DOUBT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LAST THAT LONG AS A TRACKABLE SURFACE ENTITY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 29.2N 89.0W 45 KTS
12HR VT 14/1800Z 31.1N 87.8W 45 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W 25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1800Z 36.0N 80.5W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0600Z 38.5N 74.5W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/DSPTNG
72HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED/DISSIPATED
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