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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002
 
SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS...AS WELL AS RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED.  RECON AFTER 03Z REPORTED 45 KT IN
THE SE QUADRANT...AND THERE HAVE BEEN TWO SURFACE OBS OF 35 KT
WINDS.  MOST RECENT RECON HAD 50 KT INBOUND NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.  CONSEQUENTLY
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

A RECON FIX JUST...JUST...BEFORE ADVISORY TIME INDICATES THAT HANNA
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AGAIN...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7...ALTHOUGH I
AM NOT YET CERTAIN THAT THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE SMALL
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE AND HEIGHTS ARE RISING TO THE EAST OVER FLORIDA.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE MOTION SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD RATHER
SOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH NOW HAS THE BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE
DATA FROM LAST NIGHTS FLIGHT OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET...IS MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...I AM NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT CONDUCIVE TO 
STRENGTHENING.  THE SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE...SO SOME STRENGTHENING 
IS EXPECTED IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 27.0N  88.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 28.2N  89.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 29.6N  88.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 32.0N  85.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     15/0600Z 34.5N  83.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     16/0600Z 38.0N  74.0W    40 KTS...OVER WATER
 
 
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