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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
SYSTEM RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE ON IMAGERY. MOST OF THE
WEATHER IS CONFINED TO AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONIC CURVED BAND
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CENTER IS SMALL AND SHALLOW BUT IT
HAS VERY GOOD PRESENTATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ARRIVED TO THE AREA OF THE DEPRESSION AND 
WILL DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING AND 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM ONLY TO 45 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS 
BEFORE LANDFALL. 
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 
SMALL DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE A SLOW 
NORTHWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD 
BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN FACT...IT APPEARS 
THAT THE SLOW MOTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS 
BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER 
IS TO THE EAST AND NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. 

BEYOND 36 HOURS...A NEW TROUGH WILL FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS A
WEAKENING SYSTEM.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...PRIMARILY THE NCEP MODEL.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 27.3N  86.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  86.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 29.0N  86.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 30.5N  86.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  85.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     15/1200Z 35.5N  80.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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