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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2002

GUSTAV HAS ACCELERATED GREATLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...AND IS NEAR THE EASTERN END OF NOVA SCOTIA.  ALTHOUGH AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AROUND 2200 UTC...THE
CENTRAL FEATURES HAVE NOW BECOME RAGGED-LOOKING ON IR IMAGERY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING AND LOSS OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY...BUT GUSTAV SHOULD STILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THIS IS ALSO SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
ARE ALREADY TOO SLOW IN THEIR SHORT-TERM PREDICTIONS.  SOME SLOWING
OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE
STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A LARGER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT HIGH LATITUDES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 45.0N  61.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 48.8N  56.4W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     13/0000Z 52.0N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     13/1200Z 56.0N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     14/0000Z 60.0N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     15/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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