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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2002

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION WRAPPED ALMOST
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER AND A RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR
THE CENTER.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DROPPED TO AT LEAST 984 MB...AND THERE WAS A 55 KT SHIP REPORT OF
UNKNOWN QUALITY FROM JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...WINDS
FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET SHOW INTENSIFICATION OF
THE WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE EASTERN 
SIDE.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THIS COULD BE A LITTLE LOW.
 
SMALL LOW CLOUD SWIRLS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER...
MAKING THE MOTION A SOMEWHAT IMPRECISE 005/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC RETREATING TO THE EAST AND A DEEP-
LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING GUSTAV FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...WHICH
IS WHAT ALL TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR.  THE BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS THAT THE STORM HAS NOT YET STARTED TO TURN.  THE TRACK FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE CALL FOR A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN 6-12 HR...FOLLOWED
BY ACCELERATION.  THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

GUSTAV IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...AND BETWEEN SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES...SHEAR...AND BAROCLINIC FORCING CONDITIONS SHOULD 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...GUSTAV
SHOULD START TO MERGE WITH THE TROUGH/NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW
AND SHOULD TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER EVENTS EVOLVE...
THERE SHOULD BE A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 35.3N  75.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 36.8N  73.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 39.9N  68.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 44.7N  60.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     12/1800Z 50.0N  52.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     13/1800Z 56.0N  46.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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