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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002
THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION. THIS...ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING SHIP OBSERVATIONS...
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK. CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED
TO 25 KT. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 H.
HOWEVER...UNLESS THE DEPRESSION MAKES A COMEBACK SOON...DISSIPATION
WILL OCCUR MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED HERE.
MOTION IS ABOUT 280/8. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
PROVIDIN THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...SO THE FORWARD
SPEED SHOULD SLOW SOMEWHAT AND THE SYSTEM...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS
LIKELY TO TURN A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 24.7N 50.4W 25 KTS
12HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 51.8W 25 KTS
24HR VT 09/0600Z 25.4N 53.3W 25 KTS
36HR VT 09/1800Z 25.7N 54.4W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 10/0600Z 26.2N 55.4W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 11/0600Z 27.0N 57.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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