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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TD-7 REMAINS EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS ALLOWS FOR BETTER
POSITIONING AND THUS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
275/06.  TD-7 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE. THE NHC SUITE OF MODELS NOW AGREE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 
MOTION THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PICKS UP THE SYSTEM AND RECURVES 
IT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED 
TOWARD THE AVIATION SOLUTION AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS.  AVN MODEL FORECAST
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT A SPEED MAXIMUM WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 12 TO 24 HOURS SO THAT
THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS OCCURRING NOW WILL GET WORSE.  THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE TD TO DO ANYTHING BUT HOLD ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY AS THIS SPEED MAXIMUM MOVES OVER IT...IF IT CAN SURVIVE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 24.5N  49.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 24.6N  50.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 24.9N  52.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.6N  53.7W    30 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 26.3N  55.2W    30 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  57.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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