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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002
 
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH CROSSED THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
A FEW DAYS AGO AND CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS 
DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON 
THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF 30 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM 
PRESSURE OF 1009 MB.  THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE 
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT 
STRENGTHENING. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL DEVELOPS THE DEPRESSION INTO A TROPICAL 
STORM.  

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS. THERE 
IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A 
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 24.6N  48.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 25.2N  49.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.0N  51.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 27.0N  52.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 28.0N  54.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 29.0N  55.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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