HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IN PARTICULAR FROM BUOY 42012 AT 27.9N
95.4W...INDICATE THAT FAY BEGAN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST...ABOUT 285/4.  IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...THE BROAD AND
ILL-DEFINED CENTER WILL BE ON THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE TO SLOWLY STEER THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST.  HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AFTER
MOVING INLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...JUST A BIT SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  A FEW BANDS OF 
CONVECTION ARE REDEVELOPING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER...HOWEVER  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INHIBIT 
STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS NOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION 
BEFORE LANDFALL...ASSUMING FAY DOES MOVE INLAND TODAY.

SINCE THIS IS A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM...RAINS AND FLOODING OVER 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE STILL A CONCERN.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 28.1N  95.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 28.3N  96.3W    55 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 28.6N  97.1W    40 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     08/1800Z 28.9N  98.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     09/0600Z 29.0N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     10/0600Z 29.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...REMNANT LOW

 
NNNN