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TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2002
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH AND AROUND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND FOUND A BAND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS...AND A PEAK OF 52 KNOTS...AS IT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA OF
THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TONIGHT. SINCE THEN MAX WINDS ARE ABOUT 40
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR REPORTS CLEARLY SHOW A
LARGE CIRCULATION...THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
FIND A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT CENTER. IF THE CYCLONE IS NOT A TROPICAL
STORM NOW...IT PROBABLY WILL BE SOON...SO MIGHT AS WELL NAME IT NOW.
OVERALL THE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE..SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.
 
THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND BY NO MEANS IS THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS ORGANIZING.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.  THIS SLOW MOTION
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE FLOODING EVENT ALONG THE
TEXAS AND/OR LOUISIANA COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 28.0N  93.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.0N  93.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 28.8N  94.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 29.5N  95.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     08/0000Z 30.0N  95.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  96.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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