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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2002
 
EDOUARD IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE IN THE FACE OF 50 KT SHEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH WSR-88D DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE
AND MELBOURNE INDICATED THAT THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO BURSTS
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.  A RECON FIX JUST BEFORE 06Z SHOWED
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB.  BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
EDOUARD REMAINS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
EDOUARD IS MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS WITH AN EARLIER ZIG TO
THE SOUTH FOLLOWED BY A CURRENT ZAG TO THE WEST.  SMOOTHING
THE STARTS...STOPS...AND ZIG-ZAGS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF
255/3.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT HEIGHTS WILL RISE
JUST ENOUGH TO THE NORTH OF EDOUARD TO KEEP IT ON A SLOW
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS...ALTHOUGH THE UKMET WANTS TO STALL THE CYCLONE OVER FLORIDA
WHILE THE BAMD AND NHC98 MOVE IT SOUTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
WITH 50 KT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 200 MB AND LOTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
DRY AIR...EDOUARD SHOULD WEAKEN IF NOT DIE COMPLETELY.  HOWEVER...AS
LONG AS THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING CONVECTIVE BURSTS...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A STRENGTHENING EPISODE SIMILAR TO THE ONE YESTERDAY 
MORNING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING...
WITH EDOUARD BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE LANDFALL.
SHOULD THE CYCLONE SURVIVE TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE 
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY 72 HR AND THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME AS THE
FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EDOUARD TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE
LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...IF THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT FINDS DATA
SHOWING THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...THEN WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 29.8N  79.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N  80.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 29.1N  81.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     05/1800Z 28.9N  82.7W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/0600Z 28.8N  83.7W    25 KTS...OVER WATER
72HR VT     07/0600Z 28.8N  85.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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