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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
 
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES AS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH A FEW
PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.  STRONG AND
PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT EDOUARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SURVEYING
EDOUARD SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE
CIRCULATION AS WELL.  THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS
BARELY ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 1500 FT.  EDOUARD CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED COMEBACK...IT SHOULD BE REDUCED
TO A DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY.  CURIOUSLY THE SHIPS MODEL
ACKNOWLEDGES THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR IN THE FORECAST BUT STILL
STRENGTHENS EDOUARD.  AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE.  HOWEVER THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 48 AND 72 H FORECAST POSITIONS
AND INTENSITIES.
 
AFTER BEGINNING OF WHAT SEEMED TO BE A DETERMINED MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST EARLIER TODAY...EDOUARD STALLED.  THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE.  DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION
SHOWED A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A RIDGE TO PUSH
THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...AND LOOPS EDOUARD AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND OUT TO SEA.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 29.7N  79.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 29.3N  80.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 28.9N  81.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     05/1200Z 28.6N  82.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/0000Z 28.5N  83.4W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     07/0000Z 28.5N  85.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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