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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
 
DRY AIR AND SHEAR PUT AN END TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF EDOUARD.
EACH SUBSEQUENT RECON PASS MEASURED LESS WIND.  A NOAA RESEARCH
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY IN THE CYCLONE...AND HAS FOUND NO FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS HIGHER THAN 45 KT.  ONE CAN ARGUE THAT THE STRONG WINDS FOUND
THIS MORNING WERE MESOSCALE...RATHER THAN CYCLONE SCALE...BUT IN ANY
EVENT THEY ARE NOT THERE ANY MORE.  THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME ABOUT 50 N
MI TO THE EAST.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT MAY BE
GENEROUS.

EDOUARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT 240/5...ALTHOUGH THE LAST FEW IMAGES 
SUGGEST A SLOWER MOTION.  THE PREDOMINANTLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
IS CONSIDERABLY QUICKER TO THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM 
GUIDANCE.  INTERESTINGLY...THE UKMET TURNS THE SYSTEM AROUND BEFORE 
REACHING THE COAST.

ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO DEPRESSION STATUS BEFORE 
LANDFALL...GIVEN THAT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURROUND THE CYCLONE 
AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 29.8N  79.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 29.6N  80.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 29.3N  81.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.8N  82.4W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  83.5W    30 KTS...OVER WATER
72HR VT     06/1800Z 28.5N  85.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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