HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2002
 
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR/OVER THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER.  HOWEVER THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS
RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING.  INTERESTINGLY...THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FIX WAS FARTHER EAST AND MORE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAN IS SUGGESTED BY THE LOW CLOUD LINES...WHICH ARE
DISCERNIBLE ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH CLOUDS RACING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...CENTER IS
DISPLACED AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF A DEGREE TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE CENTER.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE
RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND IS
BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY.  HOWEVER IF
THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES INCREASE A LITTLE MORE...EDOUARD MAY
WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE.

ALTHOUGH EDUOARD HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD...IT NOW APPEARS TO BE
STALLED.  ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER A SMALL AND NARROW MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND EDOUARD.  AS A
RESULT...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.  LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW FAVORING A TURN BACK
ALONG A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER NHC FORECASTS.
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 30.5N  78.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 30.5N  78.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 30.8N  78.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 30.8N  79.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 30.3N  80.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 29.5N  81.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
NNNN