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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002

AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION FOUND A DISTORTED 
CIRCULATION AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF 
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A BIT BUT THE 
HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...34 KT...WERE ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE 
EARLIER MISSION.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...INDICATIVE OF SOME 
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  NONETHELESS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS 
SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE 
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE 
CONSERVATIVE THAN SHIPS.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIX...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 
THE NORTH.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5.  NUMERICAL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY 
APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PICK UP THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD LEAVE THE SYSTEM IN WEAK STEERING 
CURRENTS SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS SLOW MOVEMENT NEAR THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST...AND MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERSE 
TRACK GUIDANCE.

PASCH
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 29.7N  79.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.2N  79.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 30.6N  80.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 31.2N  80.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 31.7N  80.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 32.5N  79.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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