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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2002
 
NIGHT TIME INFRARED ENHANCEMENTS AND THE LATEST SSMI SCAN INDICATE 
THAT DOLLYS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO 
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THUS...THE SOUTHWESTERLY 
SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
ARE 45 KTS AND 35 KTS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST 
QUIKSCAT WIND ESTIMATES GIVE VALUES OF 30 KTS NEAR AND TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 40 TO 45 KTS IN A SMALL AREA SEVERAL 
DEGREES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED UPON THIS...THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KTS.
 
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...AS THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING....AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
340/08.  THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS PACKED NEAR 54 TO 55
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT DIVERGES
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS AS INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  BY 72 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING EAST OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS DOLLY.  THIS IS ASSUMING THAT DOLLY SURVIVES THE SHEAR
AND IS STILL AN IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 19.7N  53.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.9N  53.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 22.5N  54.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N  54.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 26.1N  54.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 30.9N  53.7W    45 KTS
 
 
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