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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002
 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT SINCE
ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER AFTER
THE ESTIMATES WERE DONE.

DOLLY CONTINUES TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/09.  THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE
STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS GRADUALLY TURNING DOLLY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS ALONG THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS AN 
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
UNTIL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE CYCLONE. 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 17.4N  52.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.4N  53.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N  53.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 21.4N  54.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 22.7N  53.9W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 24.5N  54.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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