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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT
FROM SAB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE STRONG
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DOLLY NORTHWARD BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
SIMILAR TO THE AVN ENSEMBLE AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
UNTIL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS DOLLY TO 62
KT IN 72 HOURS IN SPITE OF THE 25 TO 30 KT VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED
TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 16.1N 51.9W 40 KTS
12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.2N 53.3W 40 KTS
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.8N 54.6W 45 KTS
36HR VT 03/0600Z 20.2N 55.1W 50 KTS
48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.5N 55.3W 50 KTS
72HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 55.2W 50 KTS
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