HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2002
 
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF BLOSSOMING IN THE MORNING HOURS...
UNEXPECTEDLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE IMAGES BEGAN TO BECOME
ELONGATED AND CONVECTION TO DECREASE.  LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.  THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND
MAY BE EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION.  IF THIS
IS CONFIRMED...THE INITIAL POSITION WILL HAVE TO BE RELOCATED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY LOWERED EVEN FURTHER.  I DO NOT HAVE AN
EXPLANATION FOR THE WEAKENING SINCE THE SHEAR IS VERY LOW AND THE
OCEAN IS WARM.  IT MAY BE JUST DIURNAL OR IT IS THE WEAKENING THAT
THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING.  INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS AND THIS ESTIMATE IS
GENEROUS.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE...THE IR CLOUD
PATTERN REMAINS GOOD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW.  THEREFORE
...INTENSIFICATION IS STILL FORECAST.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT
16 KNOTS AND AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.
MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE ONES
FORECASTING A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...WELL EAST OF
THE ANTILLES.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 10.6N  38.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     31/0600Z 11.0N  41.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     31/1800Z 12.0N  44.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 12.7N  46.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N  48.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     02/1800Z 14.5N  50.9W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN