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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2002
 
DOLLY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  IT HAS THE CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS.  BECAUSE
THE OCEAN IS WARM AND DOLLY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SHIPS MODEL
BRINGS DOLLY TO 88 KNOTS IN 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC BRINGING
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THIS COULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 
DEGREES A LITTLE BIT FASTER...ABOUT 14 KNOTS. DOLLY IS CURRENTLY 
SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS INDICATED BY THE 
STEERING MOTION PRODUCTS PROVIDED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN 
CIMSS. HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS RIDGE WILL 
PERSIST. IF GLOBAL MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL 
WEAKEN CAUSING DOLLY TO TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A COUPLE OF 
DAYS. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS TAKE DOLLY ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. 
IT IS TEMPTING TO GO WITH THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND TURN THE 
CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. BUT FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
KEEPS DOLLY ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH DECREASING 
FORWARD SPEED. 

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 10.4N  37.2W    55 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 10.6N  39.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     31/1200Z 11.0N  42.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 11.8N  44.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N  47.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 14.0N  50.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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