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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2002
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE OVERALL 
CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD AND THE 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS 
SPLIT.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE THE STORM 
NORTHWESTWARD.  WHILE THE GFS OR AVIATION MODEL...THE DEEP BAM 
MODEL...AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOW A 280 DEGREES 
HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE 00Z GFS MODEL SHOWS A DEEP-LAYER MEAN
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF ABOUT 15 DEG 
NORTH FOR 72 HOURS...SO IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD THAN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK GOES ALONG WITH THIS AS DID THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THERE IS A DISTORTION TO THE CLOUD PATTERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 
DOLLY.  BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THE RATHER COLD AND 
PERSISTENT CDO FEATURE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT 
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30 KT FROM AFWA AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS 
INCREASED TO 45 KT.  IF THE FORECAST TRACK IS CORRECT...THE STORM 
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 65 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS 
AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z  9.8N  34.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 10.0N  36.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 10.5N  39.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 11.0N  41.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 11.6N  43.8W    65 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 12.7N  47.2W    65 KTS
  
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