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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002
THE BELL JUST RANG IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HELLO DOLLY...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL
ESTABLISHED YET AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...THE FOURTH OF THE 2002 SEASON.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER
AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD BRING STRONG
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
DOLLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BUT THE SAME TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING THE SHEAR
WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DOLLY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL...WEAKENS THE CYCLONE
QUICKLY AND CREDIT SHOULD BE GIVEN. HOWEVER...FOR NOW LETS WAIT FOR
THE MODEL NEXT RUN.
IF DOLLY CONTINUES MORE WESTERLY THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE SUCH WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 9.8N 32.7W 35 KTS
12HR VT 30/0600Z 9.9N 34.5W 40 KTS
24HR VT 30/1800Z 10.0N 37.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 31/0600Z 10.5N 39.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 31/1800Z 11.0N 41.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 01/1800Z 12.0N 45.0W 50 KTS
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