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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.  THE CYCLONE HAS SOME BANDING
FEATURES AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER RESULTING IN
T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER.  THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN SOME.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD AN AREA OF PERSISTENT AND STRONGER THAN
NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL HALT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES ON A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK IT WILL REMAIN IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE A
CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 
285/14. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE 
WILL PROVIDE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE 
CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST.  

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z  9.6N  32.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 10.0N  34.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 10.5N  37.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 11.5N  40.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 12.5N  42.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 14.0N  47.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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