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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2002
 
CRISTOBAL APPEARS ON SATELLITE LIKE A LOW AT THE END OF A COLD 
FRONT. THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED BUT APPEARS TO BE STRONG 
ENOUGH TO KEEP 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL 
GIVE A BETTER DESCRIPTION OF THE STRUCTURE OF CRISTOBAL LATER TODAY. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEEPING CRISTOBAL AS A 40 KNOT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OR EARLIER. 
HOWEVER...SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INSIST ON MAKING CRISTOBAL A 
HURRICANE. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE STORM IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A 
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS 
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP CRISTOBAL...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT...ON A 
GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED. 

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 30.0N  73.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  72.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 31.0N  70.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 31.6N  68.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 33.0N  65.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 38.0N  58.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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