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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2002
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OR INTENSITY
OF CRISTOBAL.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK AS A STRONG LOW
EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE.  THERE IS A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
1000 MB.  SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM...AND THE GFDL MAKE
CRISTOBAL A STRONG HURRICANE.  ON THE CONTRARY...THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOUR OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT THAT AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CRISTOBAL
EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS.
 
LATEST FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CRISTOBAL HAS
BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ...PRIMARILY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS GENERAL SOLUTION IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 29.8N  75.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 31.0N  73.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  70.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 38.0N  66.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 43.0N  59.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     10/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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