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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A STRONG LOW EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE.
HOWEVER...CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 40 KNOTS
AND IS MOSTLY BASED ON A REPORT FROM SHIP WUQL AND CONTINUITY.  THIS
SHIP WAS ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII OUTWARD.  STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS REPORTED BY RAOBS ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
WITH SUCH A PATTERN...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM...AND
THE GFDL AND NAVY COAMPS MAKE CRISTOBAL A STRONG HURRICANE.  THIS IS
NOT THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS OPTED FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST 
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND 
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS GENERAL 
SOLUTION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK CRISTOBAL LATER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 29.3N  76.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 29.3N  75.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 35.0N  66.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 42.0N  58.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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