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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2002
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF CRISTOBAL OVER 
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  FOR A TIME IT 
APPEARED AS THOUGH SOME BANDING WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE 
CENTER...BUT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE 
WARMED A LITTLE AND SEPARATED SOME FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THERE HAS BEEN NO 
ADDITIONAL RECON OVERNIGHT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 180/3...AS A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0222Z 
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHWARD DRIFT CONTINUES.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST UPON AN IMMINENT TURN TO THE 
EAST...A TURN WITH WHICH THEY HAVE CLEARLY BEEN TOO EAGER.  WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.  THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DIGGING IN BEHIND 
CRISTOBAL...AND SO I STILL BELIEVE THAT THE EASTWARD TURN WILL 
OCCUR...ALBEIT DELAYED.  THE ETA MODEL MAY HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON 
THINGS...SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AND 
THEN A GRADUAL ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS WELL AS NEARLY 
ALL OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE MODELS.

WITH THE APPARENTLY GROWING SEPARATION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER...I DO NOT BELIEVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS IMMINENT...AND WITH LUCK...THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF
THE END.  STILL...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS CRISTOBAL UP TO NEARLY
60 KT...AND THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES GET CAUGHT UP
IN THE TROUGH.  IN THIS SCENARIO...THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL
AND IS ABSORBED WITHIN 72 H.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 29.5N  76.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 29.1N  76.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 29.4N  74.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 33.0N  69.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 37.0N  63.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     10/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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