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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND 999 MB PRESSURE BASED ON THE LAST 
RECON REPORT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 
1002.2 MB PRESSURE FROM BUOY 41645 LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/03. CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN MEANDERING
OR RE-DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...
SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ABOUT 100 NM...WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL 
FORECASTS AT THAT TIME. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE 
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ON CRISTOBAL EVENTUALLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 
24 HOURS AND THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT AND BECOMING 
ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT AND MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 
HAVING SAID THAT...I AM STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THAT WILL 
OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...OR EVEN AT ALL. 
CRISTOBAL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A BASIC NORTHERLY CURRENT THAT IS 
WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE DIFLUENT. THE EXCEPTION IS 
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH ARE 
MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO 
THE CONVECTION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE BURST...AND EACH CONVECTIVE 
BURST HAS BEEN FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CRISTOBAL 
WILL JUST SLOWLY FOLLOW THE CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY BECOME 
SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
TIME. HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MODEL GUIDANCE OTHER THAN 
THE ETA AND EXPERIMENTAL UKMET MODELS SUGGESTING THIS POSSIBILITY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK ONLY 
SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE 18Z AVN MODEL.

GIVEN THAT CRISTOBAL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE 
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY 
IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 54 KT AND 
58 KT IN 24 AND 36 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS TREND WAS COLSELY 
FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 30.0N  76.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 29.6N  75.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 30.4N  72.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 33.7N  67.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 37.5N  61.7W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     10/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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