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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BEING
PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO A STRONG SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.  THE
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION.  BECAUSE THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS LESS
ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...WE ARE KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS
APPROACHING THE SYSTEM AND FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002 MB BUT 
NO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS YET. 
 
A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND
INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  UK AND NCEP GLOBAL MODELS MAKE
THE DEPRESSION PART OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF THE SHEAR RELAXES AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING EASTWARD. IT SHOULD
SOON BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 30.5N  76.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  75.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 33.0N  69.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 38.5N  63.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     09/1800Z ABSORBED BY A LOW
 
 
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