[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
EXPOSED AS THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
30 KT FROM SAB AND KGWC...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT.
 
CURRENT MOTION IS 180/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH.  VIRTUALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE
ENTRAINS THE CYCLONE INTO THIS TROUGH...BUT AT DIFFERENT RATES.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY MOTION TODAY...I AM INCLINED TO LEAN
TOWARDS A SLOWER ACCELERATION THAN INDICATED BY THE AVN.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
LIES IN BETWEEN THE UKMET AND AVN SOLUTIONS.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION
MANAGE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE FACE OF THE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED BELOW...A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
WOULD LIKELY RESULT WITH AN EVEN SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION.
 
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR BEING DRIVEN TOWARD
THE DEPRESSION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES.  IN ADDITION TO THE
POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM...AND IS UNLIKELY TO ABATE WHILE THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.
IN FACT...THE MOST RECENT VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS
INCREASING.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE SHORT TERM PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING DO NOT LOOK SO GOOD.  NONETHELESS...THE DEPRESSION
IS CLOSE TO STORM STATUS...SO ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS
WOULD GET IT THERE.  AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORM...AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD.
 
THE CURRENT TRACK AND WIND RADII FORECASTS IMPLY A CLOSE APPROACH OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 30.9N  77.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 30.2N  76.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 30.0N  75.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  72.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 33.0N  68.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 42.0N  60.0W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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