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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2002

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS
OF BERTHA MOVED BACK OVER WATER.  THE SYSTEM ALREADY HAD A
CIRCULATION AND NOW IT HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION TO UPGRADE
THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.  RADAR
ESTIMATES FROM HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES INDICATE THAT WINDS ALOFT
ARE 35 KNOTS AND THIS IS ADJUSTED TO 25 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE IN A
FEW SQUALLS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALTHOUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC/OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT UNFAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ON A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST.

ALL INTEREST IN THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 29.0N  93.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 28.5N  94.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 28.5N  95.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 28.5N  96.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 28.5N  98.0W    20 KTS...INLAND

 
 
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