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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS SUGGEST THAT ARTHUR HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED ANY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS ALSO 
BEGINNING TO TAKE ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN OCCLUDED EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
PRESURE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.
 
ARTHUR HAS BEEN ACCLERATING MUCH FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE 
BEEN FORECASTING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/34 BASED ON AN 
EXPECTED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD THE 
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 
HOURS HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 40 KT. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
THE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN ARTHUR BY 12 HOURS AND TAKING THE SYSTEM 
MORE NORTHWARD AS AN EXTRATOPICAL LOW UNTIL LANDFALL OVER 
NEWFOUNDLAND OCCURS BY 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE 
NEXT 6 HOURS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH BAROCLINIC SUPPORT TO PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AS 
PER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER AND THE CANADIAN 
HURRICANE CENTER. EVEN THE THE GFDL MODEL IS INDICATING SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 55 KT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 41.7N  57.1W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     17/0000Z 45.0N  55.1W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     17/1200Z 48.1N  54.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     18/0000Z 54.0N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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