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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER...RATHER STRONG FOR SUCH HIGH LATITUDE AND COLD OCEAN.
BECAUSE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH...INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS.
 
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 26 KNOTS AROUND A
DEEPENING LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST. ARTHUR SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE 
NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH A DECREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS.  ARTHUR SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24 
HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY MERGE WITH THE LARGER CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 39.1N  60.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 41.0N  57.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     17/0600Z 46.0N  55.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     17/1800Z 48.0N  56.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/0600Z MERGED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
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