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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2002
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM. SHIP KRNJ
REPORTED 30 KT WINDS AND 1008.0 MB PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CENTER AT
06Z...INDICATING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO AT LEAST 1006
MB. BUOY 41001 HAS REPORTED 32 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 41 KT.
STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTER AND IN A
BAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35
KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KT FOR SAB. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL
REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/16. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS STRAIGHT
FORWARD...WITH THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN IN 24-36 HR AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKER. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL-AT-BEST WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS IT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE
AND FORCING TO STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE DESPITE THE SHEAR UNTIL IT
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 36 HR...THEN MAINTAINING 45 KT INTENSITY AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.
BUOY 41001 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 15 FT SEAS...SO 12 FT SEAS RADII
ARE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 35.8N 72.4W 30 KTS
12HR VT 15/1800Z 36.8N 69.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 16/0600Z 38.8N 63.3W 40 KTS
36HR VT 16/1800Z 41.3N 58.3W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 17/0600Z 44.0N 56.9W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 18/0600Z 48.0N 56.5W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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