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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2002
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE DISRUPTING OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES OVER FAIRLY WARM
WATERS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IN ANY EVENT...
IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND MERGE WITH A MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...060/17. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY
THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE
U.S. EAST COAST. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED UNTIL
LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD AS
IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL LOW.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 35.3N 74.2W 30 KTS
12HR VT 15/1200Z 36.5N 71.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 66.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 16/1200Z 40.0N 60.0W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 17/0000Z 43.0N 56.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 18/0000Z 46.0N 56.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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