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TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
 
...LORENA DISORGANIZED...BUT STILL A DANGEROUS RAINFALL THREAT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MAZATLAN.

AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 190 MILES...305 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR.  A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  THE EXPECTED TRACK
KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER...
MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND ARE SPREADING ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST
AT THIS TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR  40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  LORENA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
ALTHOUGH LORENA IS WEAKENING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES ARE 
LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...106.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 2 AM PDT...THURSDAY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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