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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2001

...POORLY ORGANIZED LORENA CONTINUING NORTHWARD...RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MAZATLAN.  THIS WARNING MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES...300 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
 
LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
LORENA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH LORENA IS WEAKENING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES ARE 
LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...107.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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