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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
 
...LORENA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT STILL A DANGEROUS RAINFALL 
THREAT...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO
MAZATLAN.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO MAZATLAN.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  THE EXPECTED TRACK
KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER...
MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND WILL REACH THE MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE 
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LORENA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LORENA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING 
LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
ALTHOUGH LORENA IS WEAKENING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES ARE 
LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...106.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT...THURSDAY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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