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HURRICANE MICHELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2001

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MICHELLE MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD CUBA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.  MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ISSUED A
MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES
FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA... INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.  THIS INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT
ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 7 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.  THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 40
MILES...60 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE SHOULD PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THEN ACROSS CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 
LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...  FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
 
RAINBANDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
JAMAICA.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES...250 TO 500
MILLIMETERS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE AS IT
CROSSES CUBA.  OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.

A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET...OR 6 METERS...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF
CUBA.
 
REPEATING THE 7 AM EST POSITION...20.4 N... 83.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR  12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
AT 10 AM EST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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