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HURRICANE MICHELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVANCES SLOWLY TOWARD WESTERN 
CUBA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MICHELLE.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE UPGRADED AND EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
 
AT 7 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.8 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS 
ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA AND ABOUT 135 
MILES...210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA.
 
MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. THE 
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST 
ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH...8 TO 16 KM/HR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  933 MB...27.55 INCHES. A 
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY.
  
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS...JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE 
ALREADY APPROACHING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS 
OF 10-20 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE.
 
REPEATING THE 7 PM EST POSITION...19.8 N... 83.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM EST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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