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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM EST FRI NOV 02 2001
...MICHELLE STRENGTHENING...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES IN
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...HAVANA CITY...MATANZAS...
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 12 PM EST...1700Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.
AT 1 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
MICHELLE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 85 MPH...135
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MICHELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF MICHELLE SHORTLY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-20 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EST POSITION...18.0 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM EST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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